![]() “What we do know is AF8, the Alpine Fault rupture, is going to be very long and very complex and there will be very strong aftershocks.” “But it’ll give us a much better handle on what ground motions to expect when it comes. “It won’t help us predict an earthquake, where the epicentre will be or how deep,” Townend says. Talking the big one, from left, Alice Lake-Hammond, Claire Brown and John Townend. Project lead John Townend says the field study, which ends in November, will yield valuable information about how and where the ground moved in small quakes.īut it can’t foretell the big one. The data they’re collecting reveals how various parts of the fault are being stressed as the earth’s tectonic plates slide and collide, the Pacific plate on the east and Australian on the west. Hence the project’s name: Southern Alps Long Skinny Array. Holden and colleagues from Victoria University and GNS Science have their ears to the ground via the SALSA project, an array of seismic sensors installed the length of the long skinny part of the fault line from Milford Sound to Maruia. It is in fact producing a “hum” the scientists say – a low background noise reflecting the vibrations of the dynamic processes at work deep within the earth. “It’s very active and it’s producing a lot of clues about what the next quake will be like.” “The fault is very close to rupturing,” seismologist Caroline Holden told an audience in Greymouth’s Civic Theatre. The last event was in 1717 making the next big one well overdue. The good news is the Coast is probably better prepared than ever for the expected catastrophe.Ĭore samples from West Coast lake beds in recent years show the giant fault along the spine of Te Wai Pounamu has ruptured with remarkable regularity every 260 to 300 years. The AF8 roadshow has just completed its biennial tour of the region, updating schools and communities on the latest science has to offer on the magnitude 8 – or greater – earthquake predicted to hit the South Island within decades. ![]() West Coasters turned out in their hundreds last week to hear scientists remind them they face disaster when the Alpine Fault decides to rearrange the scenery. Inhabitants of the shakiest part of Aotearoa’s shaky isles are readier than ever for the overdue big one Newsroom Alpine Fault quake is coming, ready or not ![]()
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